What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?
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From: SMS on 28 Oct 2009 10:01 C. E. White wrote: > A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all > Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to > be a very low number to me. What do other think? There was a study in Canada about this. For vehicles 11-20 years old, a 2006 Canadian study showed the following order for highest percentage of cars still on the road in Canada adjusted for how many were originally sold): 1. Lexus 2. Mercedes 3. Saturn 4. Infiniti 5. Acura 6. BMW 7. Volvo 8. Cadillac 9. Jaguar 10. Lincoln 11. Toyota 12. Honda 13. Mazda 14. Saab 15. Buick 16. Volkswagen 17. Chrysler 18. Nissan ---Industry Average--- 19. Oldsmobile 20. Subaru 21. Chevrolet 22. Ford 23. Pontiac 24. Audi 25. Mercury 26. Eagle 27. Dodge 28. Suzuki 29. Plymouth 30. Isuzu 31. Hyundai 32. Lada They warn that this data needs to interpreted correctly. Owners of older expensive luxury cars are more likely to repair their vehicle than junk it. Vehicles sold in large numbers into rental fleets rack up a lot of miles and have shorter life in years, but not necessarily in miles. Some vehicles in the list didn't exist 20 years prior to the study so there were no vehicles 16-20 years old, only vehicles 11-15 years old (this explains the anomaly of Saturn). Bottom line is that for vehicle brands in existence for the full 11-20 year time span, Toyota had the highest percentage of vehicles still on the road for non-luxury brands. What's also interesting is that vehicles like Volkswagen, which routinely ranks far below average in reliability, did relatively well. "http://www.canadiandriver.com/news/2006/060905-1.htm"
From: dr_jeff on 28 Oct 2009 10:25 The numbers are misleading, however. You can have a Lexus that has 200,000 mi going strong after 20 years, and a Ford Focus that has been worn out after 500,000 after 3 years. SMS wrote: > C. E. White wrote: >> A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all >> Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to >> be a very low number to me. What do other think? > > There was a study in Canada about this. > > For vehicles 11-20 years old, a 2006 Canadian study showed the following > order for highest percentage of cars still on the road in Canada > adjusted for how many were originally sold): > > 1. Lexus > 2. Mercedes > 3. Saturn > 4. Infiniti > 5. Acura > 6. BMW > 7. Volvo > 8. Cadillac > 9. Jaguar > 10. Lincoln > 11. Toyota > 12. Honda > 13. Mazda > 14. Saab > 15. Buick > 16. Volkswagen > 17. Chrysler > 18. Nissan > ---Industry Average--- > 19. Oldsmobile > 20. Subaru > 21. Chevrolet > 22. Ford > 23. Pontiac > 24. Audi > 25. Mercury > 26. Eagle > 27. Dodge > 28. Suzuki > 29. Plymouth > 30. Isuzu > 31. Hyundai > 32. Lada > > They warn that this data needs to interpreted correctly. Owners of older > expensive luxury cars are more likely to repair their vehicle than junk > it. Vehicles sold in large numbers into rental fleets rack up a lot of > miles and have shorter life in years, but not necessarily in miles. Some > vehicles in the list didn't exist 20 years prior to the study so there > were no vehicles 16-20 years old, only vehicles 11-15 years old (this > explains the anomaly of Saturn). > > Bottom line is that for vehicle brands in existence for the full 11-20 > year time span, Toyota had the highest percentage of vehicles still on > the road for non-luxury brands. > > What's also interesting is that vehicles like Volkswagen, which > routinely ranks far below average in reliability, did relatively well. > > "http://www.canadiandriver.com/news/2006/060905-1.htm"
From: Scott Dorsey on 28 Oct 2009 10:48 SMS <scharf.steven(a)geemail.com> wrote: > > 1. Lexus > 2. Mercedes > 3. Saturn > 4. Infiniti > 5. Acura > 6. BMW > 7. Volvo > 8. Cadillac > 9. Jaguar >10. Lincoln >11. Toyota >12. Honda >13. Mazda >14. Saab >15. Buick >16. Volkswagen >17. Chrysler >18. Nissan >---Industry Average--- >19. Oldsmobile >20. Subaru >21. Chevrolet >22. Ford >23. Pontiac >24. Audi >25. Mercury >26. Eagle >27. Dodge >28. Suzuki >29. Plymouth >30. Isuzu >31. Hyundai >32. Lada > >They warn that this data needs to interpreted correctly. Owners of older >expensive luxury cars are more likely to repair their vehicle than junk >it. Vehicles sold in large numbers into rental fleets rack up a lot of >miles and have shorter life in years, but not necessarily in miles. Some >vehicles in the list didn't exist 20 years prior to the study so there >were no vehicles 16-20 years old, only vehicles 11-15 years old (this >explains the anomaly of Saturn). I would just like to point out that Fiat is not even ON this list, that it is farther down in the order than Lada. There is some justice in this world. --scott -- "C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."
From: IYM "S U N on 28 Oct 2009 11:21 > They warn that this data needs to interpreted correctly. Owners of older > expensive luxury cars are more likely to repair their vehicle than junk > it. Vehicles sold in large numbers into rental fleets rack up a lot of > miles and have shorter life in years, but not necessarily in miles. Some > vehicles in the list didn't exist 20 years prior to the study so there > were no vehicles 16-20 years old, only vehicles 11-15 years old (this > explains the anomaly of Saturn). Not sure I agree with that...Saturn's first year was 91 (18 years) and the first 2-5 years were the most popular, declining from there...Lexus first year was '90, Infinity was '89 and Acura's been around in North America since '86... So all roughly the same start time (except acura). The 1st generation Saturn's are go-karts, a very simple design and are easy to maintain. The composite door panels are easy to swap out when damaged. Parts are cheap, plentiful and the first generation cars have a large fan base (before the Vue's, Ion's and before the company was brought back in to the GM fold and released disasters like the Relay van and Opel products they are now.) The original Saturns are still higher on the theft list then you'd think for the same reason old Camreys are...interchangeability... So I don't doubt they are up there. That number will slip off the list in another 5 years though. Just MHO... IYM
From: SMS on 28 Oct 2009 11:45
dr_jeff wrote: > The numbers are misleading, however. You can have a Lexus that has > 200,000 mi going strong after 20 years, and a Ford Focus that has been > worn out after 500,000 after 3 years. And the reverse could also be true. There are always outliers, but of all the possible reasons for the results, the one you gave is probably the least likely to affect the results. Remove the luxury makes, the niche brands, and the makes that were not in existence for the full 20 years, and the brands that were the most likely to be on the road for 11-20 years are: 1. Toyota 2. Honda 3. Mazda 4. Buick 5. VW 6. Buick 7. Chrysler (or is this a luxury brand?) 8. Nissan The top two are very consistent with what you see on the road, at least in the state I live in. Tons of older Hondas and Toyotas, VWs, and Nissans. What the survey doesn't take into account is the demographics of the owners. Someone that purchases a Toyota or Honda is more likely to be more highly educated and higher income, and will maintain their vehicles better and will be less likely to drive in a way that will total the vehicle, than the purchaser of many of the makes that did poorly in longevity. |