Prev: High Way Code omission
Next: The Rover 75 after 14 days - review
From: JMS jmsmith2010 on 10 Jun 2010 13:55

Once upon-a-time a hospital (Kings College) decided to look at
pedestrian injuries caused by falls on uneven pavements.

In a 90 day period data were collected on 100 patients with injuries
attributed to tripping on uneven pavements.

The majority of injuries in the study were of a minor nature. One of
these patients had a broken leg - and died post operatively. The
research does not state whether this single death was directly
attributed to the fall.

Given that there were 100 people treated over 90 days- this permitted
the authors to surmise that they *may* see 400 people as a result of
such falls in a year.

This in turn leads them to surmise that with extrapolation to a
national level there *may* be upwards of 60,000 "similar" cases.

The research does not give the ages of the people in the research -
however a number were certainly over sixty

That is all true - and it all happened twenty years ago.


The fairy story is, not what is stated above, but how some people eg
Tony Raven misrepresent this "research" (even allowing for his factor
of ten error)

"A study of admissions to Kings College Hospital in London estimates
in excess of 60,000 hospital attendances nationwide a year from trips
and falls on uneven pavements with a 1% mortality rate. So about
6,000 deaths a year or 16 a day."


Clarification:

They certainly came no-where near suggesting that there would be 6000
deaths a year nationwide. They mentioned no figure.

They did not even state whether the single death which they observed
was caused by the fall. (The patient was being treated fore a broken
leg)



From: john wright on 10 Jun 2010 15:12
On 10/06/2010 18:55, JMS wrote:
>
> Once upon-a-time a hospital (Kings College) decided to look at
> pedestrian injuries caused by falls on uneven pavements.
>
> In a 90 day period data were collected on 100 patients with injuries
> attributed to tripping on uneven pavements.
>
> The majority of injuries in the study were of a minor nature. One of
> these patients had a broken leg - and died post operatively. The
> research does not state whether this single death was directly
> attributed to the fall.
>
> Given that there were 100 people treated over 90 days- this permitted
> the authors to surmise that they *may* see 400 people as a result of
> such falls in a year.
>
> This in turn leads them to surmise that with extrapolation to a
> national level there *may* be upwards of 60,000 "similar" cases.
>
> The research does not give the ages of the people in the research -
> however a number were certainly over sixty
>
> That is all true - and it all happened twenty years ago.

I got a severe injury (which troubles me to this day on occasion) caused
by an uneven pavement when I was only 21. Shows it can happen even to
young people. This was in Worksop.


--
John Wright

Use your imagination Marvin!

Life's bad enough as it is - why invent any more of it.
From: Clive D. W. Feather on 11 Jun 2010 12:59
In message <15921698mvd670s3cmhqmcrhglu4ekbmmf(a)4ax.com>, JMS
<jmsmith2010(a)live.co.uk> wrote:
>"A study of admissions to Kings College Hospital in London estimates
>in excess of 60,000 hospital attendances nationwide a year from trips
>and falls on uneven pavements with a 1% mortality rate. So about
>6,000 deaths a year or 16 a day."

1% of 60,000 per annum is 600 per annum or about 1.6 per day.

Of course, until you know whether or not
>the single death which they observed
>was caused by the fall
you can't say whether that "1% mortality" is even correct, either.

Plus, of course, at such small numbers the 1% has a huge margin for
error. If the rate was actually 3% there would be a probability of 15%
that there would only be one death; similarly, if it was actually 0.3%
there would be a 22% probability of one death (and a 3.7% chance of more
than one).

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home: <clive(a)davros.org>
Mobile: +44 7973 377646 | Web: <http://www.davros.org>
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is: <clive(a)davros.org>
From: pk on 11 Jun 2010 13:36
"Clive D. W. Feather" <clive(a)davros.org> wrote in message
news:xcvlvNoqtmEMFwsZ(a)romana.davros.org...
> In message <15921698mvd670s3cmhqmcrhglu4ekbmmf(a)4ax.com>, JMS
> <jmsmith2010(a)live.co.uk> wrote:
>>"A study of admissions to Kings College Hospital in London estimates
>>in excess of 60,000 hospital attendances nationwide a year from trips
>>and falls on uneven pavements with a 1% mortality rate. So about
>>6,000 deaths a year or 16 a day."
>
> 1% of 60,000 per annum is 600 per annum or about 1.6 per day.
>
> Of course, until you know whether or not
>>the single death which they observed
>>was caused by the fall
> you can't say whether that "1% mortality" is even correct, either.


the 1% (1 patient ie a rounded %) died post - operatively having "sustained
a fractured neck of the femur requiring fixation"...... I interpret that as
being most likely an elderly person not up the operation.

The paper also notes the "several roads in close proximity to the hospital
were identified but this may be a reflection of easy access to prompt
treatment rather than an identification of a dangerous area" ie fall over
outside a hospital and pop in to get the cut dressed fall over close to
home,go home to clean up. the data are not representative, no attempt is
made to deal with that issue in the data used when extrapolating nationally

btw the paper was not on pedestrian safety, but "injuries due to falls as a
result of uneven pavements"

pk

 | 
Pages: 1
Prev: High Way Code omission
Next: The Rover 75 after 14 days - review