What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?
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From: C. E. White on 27 Oct 2009 11:04 A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to be a very low number to me. What do other think? I would have thought given Toyota's increase in sales over the last twenty years they would have had more like 90% of the cars sold in the last 20 years still on the road. Toyota sales have been increasing over the last twenty years, so a higher percentage of Toyotas will be newer models. Since a high percentage of Toyotas are newer vehicles that are more likely to still be on the road, the overall percentage of Toyotas sold in the last 20 years will be higher (becasue of the newer car bias). For GM, the math works the other way. GM sales have been stagnent or actually declining over the last 20 years, so a higher percentage of their cars will be older and therefore less likely to still be on the road. I am sure the 80% number is based on registrations, so it might be that it over estimates the number actually in daily use - or under estimates it in cases where cars are used off road (or illeagally) and not registered. Does anyone have any actual numbers? I am confident that 100% of the NEW vehicles I purchased in the last 20 years are still on the road, but maybe I am an exception. Here is sort of what I am thinking.....NOT REAL NUMBERS - For a manufacturer with increasing sales (5% increase per year) Year Original Percent Total Sold Sales On road On Road 1990 500000 33% 165000 1991 525000 38% 199500 1992 551250 43% 237038 1993 578813 48% 277830 1994 607753 53% 322109 1995 638141 58% 370122 1996 670048 63% 422130 1997 703550 68% 478414 1998 738728 72% 531884 1999 775664 76% 589505 2000 814447 80% 651558 2001 855170 84% 718343 2002 897928 88% 790177 2003 942825 91% 857970 2004 989966 93% 920668 2005 1039464 96% 997886 2006 1091437 97% 1058694 2007 1146009 98% 1123089 2008 1203310 99% 1191277 2009 1263475 99% 1250840 Total 16532977 80% 13154033 For a manufacturer with slightly decreasing sales (1% decrease per year), but same percent still on the road: 1990 1263475 33% 416947 1991 1250840 38% 475319 1992 1238332 43% 532483 1993 1225949 48% 588455 1994 1213689 53% 643255 1995 1201552 58% 696900 1996 1189537 63% 749408 1997 1177641 68% 800796 1998 1165865 72% 839423 1999 1154206 76% 877197 2000 1142664 80% 914131 2001 1131238 84% 950240 2002 1119925 88% 985534 2003 1108726 91% 1008941 2004 1097639 93% 1020804 2005 1086662 96% 1043196 2006 1075796 97% 1043522 2007 1065038 98% 1043737 2008 1054387 99% 1043843 2009 1043843 99% 1033405 Total 23007003 73% 16707535 The net is, manufacturers that have similar reliability can have significantly different percentages of vehicles built in the last 20 years still on the road. Ergo, the Toyota's ad claim is at best meaningless, at worst deliberately misleading....but then I've always assumed that the Chevy (or sometimes Dodge) ads that clam their trucks are the most reliable and longest lasting (based on registration data) are deliberately misleading. So, I don't think Toyota is being espeically misleading, but I wonder how many people understand the ad? I'll bet many people think Toyota is saying 80% of 20 year old Toyotas are still on the road, instead of 80% of the Toyotas sold in the last twenty years....isn't marketing wonderful. There is a huge difference in the two statements. Ed
From: David on 27 Oct 2009 11:55 Here in the UK the Government is trying to get older cars off the road. If you buy a new car and scrap your present one of 10 years or older they give you �2000. I think in Europe is �3000 ( in Euros of course.) -- Regards, David FREESAT HD as it is now it is a joke.
From: Tegger on 27 Oct 2009 12:33 "C. E. White" <cewhite3(a)removemindspring.com> wrote in news:4ae70c7c$1 @kcnews01: > A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all > Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to > be a very low number to me. What do other think? > I guess it depends where you live. In my area (the Rust Belt of north- eastern North America), Toyota's number seems impossibly high, unless that missing 20% is all concentrated up here. My personal guess, based on my visual observations while on the road each day, is that overall the percentage of cars (not just Toyotas) still in daily use after 20 years would be more like one to five percent. I infrequently see cars (of any make) older than about 1992. Cars older than about 1989 are almost non-existent around here. -- Tegger
From: Jules on 27 Oct 2009 12:49 On Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:55:36 +0000, David wrote: > > Here in the UK the Government is trying to get older cars off the road. > If you buy a new car and scrap your present one of 10 years or older they > give you £2000. I think in Europe is £3000 ( in Euros of course.) Same sort of deal here in the US. Shame as I'm sure it's not very eco-friendly extracting materials, processing, building and shipping a new car vs. just keeping a properly-maintained old one on the road, but I suspect these government schemes are more about stimulating the economy, and the 'green' aspect is really a convenient way of attracting interest... (most folk seem to equate things to old vs. new, and new being better because it uses less energy or pollutes less - but few seem to think about the 'cost' in providing the new thing, or disposing of the thing being replaced, or disposing of the new thing when it breaks) cheers Jules
From: Ray O on 27 Oct 2009 13:08
"C. E. White" <cewhite3(a)removemindspring.com> wrote in message news:4ae70c7c$1(a)kcnews01... >A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all >Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to be a >very low number to me. What do other think? > > I would have thought given Toyota's increase in sales over the last twenty > years they would have had more like 90% of the cars sold in the last 20 > years still on the road. Toyota sales have been increasing over the last > twenty years, so a higher percentage of Toyotas will be newer models. > Since a high percentage of Toyotas are newer vehicles that are more likely > to still be on the road, the overall percentage of Toyotas sold in the > last 20 years will be higher (becasue of the newer car bias). For GM, the > math works the other way. GM sales have been stagnent or actually > declining over the last 20 years, so a higher percentage of their cars > will be older and therefore less likely to still be on the road. I am sure > the 80% number is based on registrations, so it might be that it over > estimates the number actually in daily use - or under estimates it in > cases where cars are used off road (or illeagally) and not registered. > > Does anyone have any actual numbers? I am confident that 100% of the NEW > vehicles I purchased in the last 20 years are still on the road, but maybe > I am an exception. > > Here is sort of what I am thinking.....NOT REAL NUMBERS - > > For a manufacturer with increasing sales (5% increase per year) > > Year Original Percent Total > Sold Sales On road On Road > 1990 500000 33% 165000 > 1991 525000 38% 199500 > 1992 551250 43% 237038 > 1993 578813 48% 277830 > 1994 607753 53% 322109 > 1995 638141 58% 370122 > 1996 670048 63% 422130 > 1997 703550 68% 478414 > 1998 738728 72% 531884 > 1999 775664 76% 589505 > 2000 814447 80% 651558 > 2001 855170 84% 718343 > 2002 897928 88% 790177 > 2003 942825 91% 857970 > 2004 989966 93% 920668 > 2005 1039464 96% 997886 > 2006 1091437 97% 1058694 > 2007 1146009 98% 1123089 > 2008 1203310 99% 1191277 > 2009 1263475 99% 1250840 > Total 16532977 80% 13154033 > > For a manufacturer with slightly decreasing sales (1% decrease per year), > but same percent still on the road: > > 1990 1263475 33% 416947 > 1991 1250840 38% 475319 > 1992 1238332 43% 532483 > 1993 1225949 48% 588455 > 1994 1213689 53% 643255 > 1995 1201552 58% 696900 > 1996 1189537 63% 749408 > 1997 1177641 68% 800796 > 1998 1165865 72% 839423 > 1999 1154206 76% 877197 > 2000 1142664 80% 914131 > 2001 1131238 84% 950240 > 2002 1119925 88% 985534 > 2003 1108726 91% 1008941 > 2004 1097639 93% 1020804 > 2005 1086662 96% 1043196 > 2006 1075796 97% 1043522 > 2007 1065038 98% 1043737 > 2008 1054387 99% 1043843 > 2009 1043843 99% 1033405 > Total 23007003 73% 16707535 > > The net is, manufacturers that have similar reliability can have > significantly different percentages of vehicles built in the last 20 years > still on the road. Ergo, the Toyota's ad claim is at best meaningless, at > worst deliberately misleading....but then I've always assumed that the > Chevy (or sometimes Dodge) ads that clam their trucks are the most > reliable and longest lasting (based on registration data) are deliberately > misleading. So, I don't think Toyota is being espeically misleading, but I > wonder how many people understand the ad? I'll bet many people think > Toyota is saying 80% of 20 year old Toyotas are still on the road, instead > of 80% of the Toyotas sold in the last twenty years....isn't marketing > wonderful. There is a huge difference in the two statements. > > Ed > Automakers generally don't come up with the various statements and claims made in advertising. More often, it the automakers' ad agencies that come up with the statements. Of course, auto executives have to approve the ads. In Toyota's case, I suspect that the ad is a counter to the Detroit 3's ads citing various sources to show that their vehicles are the longest lasting. The trend to cite statistics in advertising is probably the result of what marketing professors have been teaching marketing majors in college. The "80% of Toyotas sold in the last 20 years are still on the road" implies that other volume automakers have a lower volume, which could be the result of the Cash for Clunkers program. Most of the vehicles traded in for the program were supposed to get less than 18 MPG and be less than 25 years old. Other than the Land Cruiser, Tundra, and Sequoia, a very high proportion of Toyotas sold in the last 20 years (probably greater than 80%) did not qualify for the clunkers program because they got better than 18 MPG. The Detroit 3's historical sales have been larger vehicles, so they may have had disproportionate representation in the clunkers traded in, regardless of the condition of the vehicles. I think something like 700,000 clunkers were traded in, and if they were mostly Detroit 3 products, then that may have been enough to sway the statistics in Toyota's favor. -- Ray O (correct punctuation to reply) |