What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?
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From: Hachiroku ハチロク on 27 Oct 2009 17:29 C. E. White wrote: > A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all > Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. And I personally own about half of them...
From: Tegger on 27 Oct 2009 17:31 clare(a)snyder.on.ca wrote in news:ukiee517m0l7ll2rc32vbev430hrrep7v1(a)4ax.com: > On Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:33:54 +0000 (UTC), Tegger <invalid(a)invalid.inv> > wrote: > >> >>I infrequently see cars (of any make) older than about 1992. Cars >>older than about 1989 are almost non-existent around here. > > > You need to read the claim. > 80% of vehicles sold over the last 20 years are still on the road. > This could be true even if NO 20 year old Toyotas were still on the > road. There are still a significant number of 1989 Toyotas on the > road, particularly in the south, and California (where the majority > were sold in the beginning) > That's why I said "unless that missing 20% is all concentrated up here [in the Rust Belt]". Sure, it's possible Toyota's figures are accurate if you include the dry southwest. Cars stay rust-free for a /long/ time down there. Informal survey by myself today: Mileage covered: about 100 Number of cars observed: thousands, I'm sure Number of cars obviously over 20 years in age: one (~'85 Olds Cutlass) Number of cars that were older than 1993: maybe 20 I would say that the overwhelming bulk of the cars I saw today were between five and ten years old. -- Tegger
From: Tegger on 27 Oct 2009 17:44 Vic Smith <thismailautodeleted(a)comcast.net> wrote in news:nvlee55gkcllskd40i4ts5rchckrrfh7pj(a)4ax.com: > Steve Scharf posted this link some time back in a discussion about > longevity. > http://www.desrosiers.ca/2007%20Update/Documents%20and%20Reports/2007%2 > 0OBS/Trends%20in%20Vehicle%20Longevity.pdf > > It's a bit dated, and GM/Ford/Chrysler is lumped in one bucket, > "imports" in another. And it's Canadian. > No raw numbers or fine breakdowns, which always disappoints the > analyst in me. Because of that I don't really trust it. I don't know > the "intent" of the report or who put the numbers together, and how > they did it. Call me the eternal skeptic. Another thing not covered in that Desrosiers document: Annual mileage. It's one thing to have a vehicle still registered for the road, but quite another to have it registered but rarely actually going anywhere. A lot of much older cars get relegated to second or third-car status and sit in the driveway a lot. People become unwilling to trust the old heap to go very far without breaking down. How many of those "80% of Toyotas still on the road" are actually still covering close to the mileages they did when new? We'll never know, I guess. -- Tegger
From: Vic Smith on 27 Oct 2009 17:45 On Tue, 27 Oct 2009 11:05:48 -0700 (PDT), m6onz5a <corvair(a)comcast.net> wrote: > >All of those old cars must be hiding somewhere because I hardly ever >see any old ones on the road. That's another problem with getting "real" and useful meaning from registration figures. Where I live in the burbs there's hardly any old cars. My '90 Corsica might be the oldest car of the closest 200 cars around here. I just use it for local trips, and wouldn't take it on the road. But if I go about 10 miles into the north side of Chicago, I can see all sorts of such cars parked on the streets. Instead of 1 in 200, it's more like 1 in 10. I assume that most are used like mine, and not real "highway cars." But where you're at can make a huge difference in the age of cars you see around you. --Vic
From: Vic Smith on 27 Oct 2009 17:55
On Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:44:58 +0000 (UTC), Tegger <invalid(a)invalid.inv> wrote: >Vic Smith <thismailautodeleted(a)comcast.net> wrote in >news:nvlee55gkcllskd40i4ts5rchckrrfh7pj(a)4ax.com: > > >> Steve Scharf posted this link some time back in a discussion about >> longevity. >> http://www.desrosiers.ca/2007%20Update/Documents%20and%20Reports/2007%2 >> 0OBS/Trends%20in%20Vehicle%20Longevity.pdf >> >> It's a bit dated, and GM/Ford/Chrysler is lumped in one bucket, >> "imports" in another. And it's Canadian. >> No raw numbers or fine breakdowns, which always disappoints the >> analyst in me. Because of that I don't really trust it. I don't know >> the "intent" of the report or who put the numbers together, and how >> they did it. Call me the eternal skeptic. > > > >Another thing not covered in that Desrosiers document: Annual mileage. It's >one thing to have a vehicle still registered for the road, but quite >another to have it registered but rarely actually going anywhere. > Yep. And that's not kept on the state reg DB's either. >A lot of much older cars get relegated to second or third-car status and >sit in the driveway a lot. People become unwilling to trust the old heap to >go very far without breaking down. > >How many of those "80% of Toyotas still on the road" are actually still >covering close to the mileages they did when new? We'll never know, I >guess. Agree. My '90 Corisca has about 120k miles, but the last 5k has taken about 5 years to put on. And this year it's gone not more than a few hundred miles. --Vic |